2010-2011 China Ammonia Annual Report

[Product Type]：Market Research Report

[Published by]：Fertilizer Department of China National Chemical Information Center

[Updated Date]：May 2011

[Price]：US $1,800.00 for English copy, RMB 8,000.00 for Chinese copy

[Abstract]

After 60 years of development, China’s ammonia production capacity and output have leapt to first place in the world and account for about one-third of the world’s total ammonia capacity and output, respectively. In 2010, China’s ammonia capacity was 65.43 million t/a; and its ammonia output was 49.632 million tons, down 3.4% year on year. China’s ammonia plants are mainly concentrated in East China, Central South China and North China, and ammonia produced by them is mainly used for the production of nitrogen fertilizer in these regions. There are now 463 ammonia enterprises in China. But their single-unit capacity varies greatly: the largest single-unit capacity reaches 500,000 t/a, but the smallest is less than 80,000 t/a. Ammonia enterprises in China are small-sized, and the concentration degree of China’s synthetic ammonia industry is low. In China, ammonia production mainly uses coal as the raw material. Coal-based ammonia accounts for 79% of China’s total ammonia output, and natural gas-based ammonia accounts for 20%. Oil-based ammonia has already quitted from the Chinese market. In China, coal-based ammonia producers mainly use the atmospheric-pressure fixed-bed batch process and the atmospheric-pressure fixed-bed oxygen-rich continuous coal gasification process to produce ammonia, and natural gas-based ammonia producers mainly use imported technologies. More than 90% of ammonia is used for fertilizer production in China, 60% of which is used for urea production. About 4 million - 5 million tons of ammonia is annually consumed by industrial fields. With the continuing expansion of the ammonia capacity in the next few years, the oversupply of ammonia in China will still exist. In 2011, China plans to build a new ammonia capacity of 2.22 million t/a, so its total ammonia capacity will reach 67.65 million t/a, and its ammonia output is expected to reach 57.5 million tons. By 2015, China’s ammonia capacity will reach 73 million t/a, and its annual consumption of ammonia will reach 59 million tons.

In China, ammonia is mainly used as the raw material of nitrogen fertilizer, ammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer. Only a small part of ammonia is sold as a commodity, accounting for only 10-15% of China’s total ammonia output. In 2010, ammonia prices went first down and then up. During the spring farming period, ammonia prices were in low levels. In October, the mainstream ex-factory price of ammonia reached its record high – about 3,500 yuan /ton. China rarely imports and exports ammonia. It exports only a few dozen tons of ammonia annually, really a negligible number. In 2010, it imported 291,000 tons of synthetic ammonia, which had little impact on the domestic market.

Year 2011 is the first year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Program" Period (2011-2015). The synthetic ammonia industry is facing structural adjustment. The "Twelfth Five-Year Planning" of the nitrogen fertilizer industry and the "Access Conditions for Synthetic Ammonia Industry" will lead the future development of China’s synthetic ammonia industry.

Contents

Abstract  1

1  Development Environment of China's Ammonia Industry         2

1.1 China’s macroeconomic environment in 2010  2

1.2 China’s agricultural situation in 2010        3

1.2.1 Grain output keeps growing  3

1.2.2 Agricultural subsidies continue to increase   4

1.2.3 Grain prices are raised to boost food production  4

1.3 Consumption of nitrogen fertilizer in China       5

2 Review of China's Ammonia Industry   7

2.1 History       7

2.2 Review       7

2.2.1 Status quo of ammonia production         7

2.2.2 Major economic indicators of ammonia production       8

2.2.3 Major production processes of ammonia       8

2.2.4 Consumption of ammonia      9

2.3 Analysis on the supply and demand balance of ammonia          9

3 Analysis on Raw Materials Structure of Ammonia in China 11

3.1 Raw materials structure of ammonia        11

3.2 Status quo of coal supply and outlook of coal-based ammonia production       12

3.2.1 Status quo of coal supply        12

3.2.2 Outlook of coal-based ammonia production  14

3.3 Status quo of natural gas supply and outlook of ammonia production     14

3.3.1 Status quo of natural gas supply    14

3.3.2 Outlook of natural gas-based ammonia production       15

4 Analysis and Prediction of Ammonia Supply in China   16

4.1 Status quo of ammonia capacity and new capacity in 2010      16

4.1.1 Status quo of ammonia capacity    16

4.1.2 New ammonia capacity in 2010     16

4.2 Status quo of ammonia output 17

4.2.1 Overview of ammonia output         17

4.2.2 Distribution of ammonia output by province 19

4.3 Development status of ammonia enterprises in China     20

4.3.1 Development history      20

4.3.2 Size distribution of ammonia enterprises       20

4.3.3 China’s top 10 ammonia enterprises in 2010         21

4.4 Prediction of China's ammonia supply       21

4.4.1 New ammonia projects in 2011 and their capacities     21

4.4.2 Prediction of China’s ammonia capacity in 2011-2015  22

5 Analysis and Prediction of Demand for Ammonia in China  23

5.1 Overview of ammonia consumption 23

5.1.1 Consumption structure of ammonia      23

5.1.2 Apparent consumption of ammonia       23

5.2 Analysis on the consumption of ammonia in the agricultural sector         24

5.2.1 Consumption of ammonia in the nitrogen fertilizer industry          25

5.2.2 Consumption of ammonia in phosphate and compound fertilizers        25

5.3 Consumption of ammonia in the industrial field        26

5.3.1 Consumption of ammonia in the concentrated nitric acid industry       26

5.3.2 Consumption of ammonia in the caprolactam industry          26

5.3.3 Consumption of ammonia in the acrylonitrile industry  26

5.4 Prediction of ammonia consumption         26

5.4.1 Prediction of ammonia consumption in the fertilizer field     27

5.4.2 Prediction of ammonia consumption in the industrial field    27

6 Analysis and Prediction of Ammonia Prices in China    29

6.1 Analysis of ammonia prices       29

6.2 Factors for ammonia prices       30

6.2.1 Rise of production costs          30

6.2.2 Impact of energy saving and emission reduction policy         31

6.2.3 Pull of the international market     31

6.2.4 Rise of the overall price level 31

6.3 Prediction of ammonia prices    31

7 Imports and Exports of Ammonia in China   33

7.1 Overview of China’s imports and exports of ammonia     33

7.2 Analysis of China’s ammonia imports in 2010  33

8 Analysis on Competitiveness of China's Ammonia Industry         36

8.1 Raw materials structure and production scale          36

8.2 Production cost analysis    36

8.2.1 Production cost of coal-based ammonia         36

8.2.2 Production cost of natural gas-based ammonia    36

8.2.3 Economic analysis of ammonia produced from different raw materials        37

9 Development Trend of China's Ammonia Industry       38

9.1 Impacts of policies     38

9.1.1 Current policies      38

9.1.2 National policy trends    38

9.2 Structure adjustment pattern of the ammonia industry  39

List of Figures

Figure 1-1: Growth of China’s GDP during 2000-2010    3

Figure 1-2: Central Government Increased Four Items of Rural Subsidy during 2006-2011   4

Figure 1-3: Grain Production and Nitrogen Consumption in China during 2000-2010    6

Figure 3-1: Production Scale for Different Kinds of Coals in China  12

Figure 3-2: China Anthracite Production during 2000-2010    13

Figure 4-1: Capacity and Production of Ammonia in China during 2000-2010         16

Figure 4-2: Production of Ammonia in China during 2000-2010      18

Figure 4-3: Ammonia Production in each month of 2010         19

Figure 4-4: Structure of Ammonia Output in Different Provinces in 2010       19

Figure 4-5: Outlook of Ammonia Capacity during 2011-2015 22

Figure 5-1: Outlook of Ammonia Consumption in China during 2011-2015     27

Figure 6-1: Ammonia Ex-factory Price in China during 2009-2010  30

Figure 6-2: Outlook of Ammonia Ex-factory Price in China in 2011 32

Figure 7-1: Import Structure of Ammonia Based on Provinces in 2010  34

Figure 7-2: Major Ports to Import Ammonia to China in 2010         35

List of Tables

Table 1-1: Grain Production in China during 1990-2010 (million tonnes)         4

Table1-2: Grain Minimum Purchase Price in Main Producing Areas (Unit: RMB/50kg) 5

Table2-1: Domestic Output of Ammonia during 1950-2009 (thousand tonnes)     7

Table2-2: Comprehensive Energy Consumption of Ammonia Production in Some Provinces in 2009 (kg coal per tonne ammonia)      8

Table 3-1: Structure of Raw Materials for Ammonia Production (thousand tonnes, %)          11

Table 3-2: China Natural Gas Production during 2005-2010 (billion M3, %)   14

Table 4-1: New Capacity of Ammonia in China in 2010 (thousand tonnes)     17

Table 4-2: Production of Ammonia in China during 2005-2010 (thousand tonnes)          17

Table 4-3: Distribution of Ammonia Enterprises with Different in 2010  (thousand tonnes, %)  20

Table 4-4: Top Ten Ammonia Enterprises with Largest Productiony in 2010 21

Table 4-5: New Ammonia Projects and Capacity in 2011 (thousand tonnes) 21

Table 5-1: Consumption Structure of Ammonia in China in 2010 (thousand tonnes, %)         23

Table 5-2: Current Apparent Consumption of Ammonia in China during 2004-2010 (thousand tonnes, %)  23

Table 5-3: Structure of Agricultural Consumption of Ammonia in China in 2010   (thousand tonnes, %)    24

Table 7-1: Import and Export of Ammonia in China during 2004-2010 (thousand tonnes)     33

Table 7-2: Destinations of of China’s Ammonia Import in 2010 (thousand tonnes, %)  34